There was a comment to my last post, about whether or not villain should call my push knowing that he was splitting the pot, or losing it to a possible flush. It seemed wrong to me to fold the nuts with these stack sizes, but it is a situation where it is easy to calculate the correct action.
Let's put ourselves in his position. We know we both have the ace high straight, and that we are losing to a made flush. Our equity in the pot is 39.8%. Pot size is 1220. Bet size is 1514. The expected value of calling the shove can simply be calculated as:
EV(call) = equity * (pot size + 2 * bet size) - bet size = $177.
So if we fold here, that is what we are costing ourselves.
I messed with the bet size to figure out how large a bet we can profitably call. It turns out the sweet spot is about $2380. So if the effective stacks had been $900 larger, our villain should have folded, unless he thought there was a chance I was bluffing, or that I didn't in fact have a flush draw. If these probabilities are estimated to be significant, the bet would have had to be much larger to correctly fold. I suppose it is somewhat reassuring that the theory tells us not to go about folding the nuts too often, even with redraws on the board.
Situations were you can actually precisely calculate the correct action come up rarely in poker, but this was one of those cases.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Monday, March 24, 2008
Pluggin' along.
It has been a few weeks since last post. I went skiing for a week in France during that time, and haven't really had anything on my mind.
Overall I am running extremely well. I didn't destroy an ACL or break anything skiing, and to top it off, poker has been very good to me after my return. I am up over $15k in all-in luck this month, which is a ridiculous number. I am obviously very happy with the money sitting in my account, but it does feel a little awkward that I didn't really earn it. I suppose I will have to get over that somehow. It's not like I should have lost money or anything, I just shouldn't have been destroying the games nearly as hard as I did. I guess the main thing is to just enjoy it while it lasts, and try to maintain a realistic expectation of future results.
Compared to back in November when I had a streak of good results, I am much more focused on maintaining good work ethics. I may be getting a little bit more ambitious, as I am still happy with my results, but now I also want to get even better ones! Maybe it will pass, but at the moment I really feel like getting a lot of playing hours in, even though I am sitting on a comfortable pile of monthly income for March. It has been very motivating listening to the 2+2 pokercasts with interviews with some of the best poker players alive. Somehow listening to the radio show does not interfere at all with playing 6 tables of 1000NL-2000NL. Apparently I use two different parts of my brain for those two activities. Only when unusually tough decisions come up do I subconsciously tune out the pokercast. Anyway, I greatly recommend the shows, including the archived ones.
This may shock the hell out of all of you, but here is some strategy content. I recently had the opportunity to give myself a freeroll in a 2000NL hand:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Button ($515)
SB ($2124)
BB ($3892)
UTG ($2355)
MP ($2030)
Hero ($3467.50)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 2c, Ac.
2 folds, Hero raises to $70, 1 fold, SB calls $60, 1 fold.
Flop: ($160) Jd, Td, Kc (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $120, SB calls $120.
Turn: ($400) Qc (2 players)
SB bets $420, Hero shoves (All-In), SB calls.
River: ($5588) 8c (2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: $5588
SB has Ts As (straight, ace high).
Hero has 2c Ac (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero cleans house.
Its an unusual situation that arises on the turn: I have the stone cold nuts, possibly tied with villain, but with a chance to improve! In this case it is very important to take advantage of your draw by getting some money in the middle. I am almost 100% certain that we are tied on the turn, but if I shove I give myself a 20% chance at taking his whole stack. Luckily, I run so well that of course I hit jackpot. Had I not shoved the hand on the turn, he may have gotten away from it, but you will never get a fold from an ace on the turn, even with much bigger stacks. Had the stacks in fact been much bigger, realizing the situation and shoving the full stack would have been even more important, and just calling or making a small raise would be a very expensive mistake.
Overall I am running extremely well. I didn't destroy an ACL or break anything skiing, and to top it off, poker has been very good to me after my return. I am up over $15k in all-in luck this month, which is a ridiculous number. I am obviously very happy with the money sitting in my account, but it does feel a little awkward that I didn't really earn it. I suppose I will have to get over that somehow. It's not like I should have lost money or anything, I just shouldn't have been destroying the games nearly as hard as I did. I guess the main thing is to just enjoy it while it lasts, and try to maintain a realistic expectation of future results.
Compared to back in November when I had a streak of good results, I am much more focused on maintaining good work ethics. I may be getting a little bit more ambitious, as I am still happy with my results, but now I also want to get even better ones! Maybe it will pass, but at the moment I really feel like getting a lot of playing hours in, even though I am sitting on a comfortable pile of monthly income for March. It has been very motivating listening to the 2+2 pokercasts with interviews with some of the best poker players alive. Somehow listening to the radio show does not interfere at all with playing 6 tables of 1000NL-2000NL. Apparently I use two different parts of my brain for those two activities. Only when unusually tough decisions come up do I subconsciously tune out the pokercast. Anyway, I greatly recommend the shows, including the archived ones.
This may shock the hell out of all of you, but here is some strategy content. I recently had the opportunity to give myself a freeroll in a 2000NL hand:
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $20 BB (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)
Button ($515)
SB ($2124)
BB ($3892)
UTG ($2355)
MP ($2030)
Hero ($3467.50)
Preflop: Hero is CO with 2c, Ac.
2 folds, Hero raises to $70, 1 fold, SB calls $60, 1 fold.
Flop: ($160) Jd, Td, Kc (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $120, SB calls $120.
Turn: ($400) Qc (2 players)
SB bets $420, Hero shoves (All-In), SB calls.
River: ($5588) 8c (2 players, 2 all-in)
Final Pot: $5588
SB has Ts As (straight, ace high).
Hero has 2c Ac (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero cleans house.
Its an unusual situation that arises on the turn: I have the stone cold nuts, possibly tied with villain, but with a chance to improve! In this case it is very important to take advantage of your draw by getting some money in the middle. I am almost 100% certain that we are tied on the turn, but if I shove I give myself a 20% chance at taking his whole stack. Luckily, I run so well that of course I hit jackpot. Had I not shoved the hand on the turn, he may have gotten away from it, but you will never get a fold from an ace on the turn, even with much bigger stacks. Had the stacks in fact been much bigger, realizing the situation and shoving the full stack would have been even more important, and just calling or making a small raise would be a very expensive mistake.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
