Saturday, May 26, 2007

Favourite posts.

As loyal readers will know, I am currently in non poker mode, due to the fact that I am turning in my thesis on Friday. This means one more week short on blog updates. To keep you interested, I am putting together a short overview of some the more interesting posts I have written in the months I have been blogging. Also, I recommend navigating the blog through the labels to the right, or browsing the archive.

Prototypical session reports:
I spew these reports on a regular basis. If you like it, you will love the blog :).

Strategy:
Less frequent, more valuable. Strategy related posts should be the bread and butter of this blog. I am probably not quite smart enough to make it so. Yet.

Monthly results:
I win money. Sometimes.

Donkey stories:
Ask not what the donkey can do for you, but what you can do for the donkey.

Uncategorized, what does it take to be a winning poker player and taking shots.

I also have some opinions on stuff, in case you care.

Have fun reading, and please comment on anything you like, dislike or disagree with.

Monday, May 21, 2007

Time out.

All the not playing poker is slowly getting out of hand, but the fact is I really have no choice if I want to become an actuary. 10 days without poker so far, and now another 10 days to go until I turn in my thesis June 1st. You will have to live without frequent updates for a while longer, but then things should get a bit more interesting with frequent online play and my WSOP trip coming up in the end of June. In the mean time I have invited a guest blogger here to entertain you while I am busy, we will see if he rises to the challenge :). Until then, have patience!

Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Going to the WSOP.



This strip from Bobby Crosby says it all: You gotta go to Vegas, or your life will be one of predetermined bitterness. You know I don't want that, so count me in, I will be going to Vegas this summer. Event no. 45 has my name on it, a $5k 6-handed NL Hold'em event. I will be staying in Vegas for about a week, so I will probably play at least one more event, possibly 2 or 3 if I bust out quickly in the first ones.

I will also check out the cash games while I am there, but this is my first visit to Vegas, so if you have any good tips on where to find good games/hotels/restaurants or anything else really, I will be happy to hear them. So far I am counting on one of the least expensive hotels on the strip, within walking distance of action.

Is playing the WSOP a decision with positive expected value? Honestly, I have to say probably not. Counting plane tickets, expenses, lost online playing hours and taxes (which I don't have to pay online on EU registered sites, but do have to pay on non-EU registered casinos), there is no way I can expect to profit from the experience, compared to staying at home putting in 20 hours 6-tabling 600NL. However, I would not expect the trip to cost me a lot of expected value compared to just hanging around doing nothing, it might even be EV+ depending on the softness of the tournaments. I think a 50% ROI for a deep stacked NL tournament is not too far fetched, and since I am counting on getting about 40-50% backing set up, if I play $10k worth of tournaments, the expected return will roughly pay for expenses. The variance is obviously huge, so by far the most likely outcome is going home a good deal poorer than I went out, which I am prepared for.

Enough with the day dreaming, back to thesis work.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Bots.

I just ran into this thread on 2p2 about winning bots in deep stacked 200NL cash games on Full Tilt. This is more than a little disconcerting, considering that we all thought winning bots at these games were still a thing of the future.

I am not completely horrified by these particular bots, who appear to be able to exploit only the weakest players, and will themselves very easily be exploited by good thinking players. Their strategy is an extemely weak tight, set mining style which will not win money unless weak players are present. However, the fact that they are making a profit at all is sucking cash out of the games that will not be coming back, making it less profitable for the professionals, and less fun for the casual players.

What is very problematic is the response from Full Tilt, which basically says that despite very damning evidence, they are unwilling to seize funds and close accounts. If I played on FT, I would seriously reconsider my choice of casino, or at least write their support for an explanation.

I don't have much more to add at this point, but I might get back to it later.

Sunday, May 13, 2007

Taking shots.

Friday I had a long day working on the thesis, and finished up at about 1 AM. This is absolute prime time for action hungry and slightly drunk donkeys donating their money to the cause, so I decided to reward myself with half an hours poker before bed time.

It just so happened I ran into a known donk splashing around at 2000NL shorthanded tables, an interesting and potentially profitable situation. I decided that since I was only going to play for a short while, I might as well make it interesting and sit down in the big game (600NL being standard for me). As it happened there was a spot to the immediate left of our friend. Another donkey showed up at 1000NL, and yet a few more at 1000NL full ring, so I had an interesting half hour ahead of me.

Loke must have seen the injustice of me slaving at the office those many hours without poker, so on this particular day, he decided to reward me with a sick run of cards. I made sets, had AA-QQ, made weird two pairs and trips from the blinds and basically didn't have a tough decision for the full half hour. No interesting hands to report, since I seemed to have the goods every single time. The net result was $2500 for 100 hands, which was about 80PTBB/100. So it seemed I made about as much in half an hour as I did in the entire month of April!

I was briefly reminded of that crazy day back in March, which is still my second craziest poker experience.

Having hit jackpot in two consecutive shots at levels above my head entitles me to give you advice on how and when to take shots.
  • Do it when the other guys are drunk, not you.
  • Do it when you can afford to lose.
  • Employ a stop-loss strategy.
  • Do it when you are generally satisfied with yourself.
  • Concentrate on the challenge.
These points in mind, I don't see a single thing wrong with playing above your bank roll. We mustn't forget, we are poker players, it is fun to gamble. It is much better to have an adrenaline pumped, fully focused session with marginal EV and high variance once in a while, than it is to burn yourself out grinding the same old same old. The danger of playing above your head is the pain, shame and despair of losing more money than you are mentally ready for, and if the above criteria are not met, this will feel so much worse, and could affect future sessions at your normal limit. Even worse, it could ruin other aspects of your life temporarily or permanently. With a solid mental and economic base, you are only gambling with money. Also, you might even learn something. That you have much to learn for instance, if nothing else.

Gamble it up, but keep ccol.

Btw., if you are a low stakes casual player considering taking shots at 600NL at Partypoker, send me your screen name, and the time you are going to play, and I will see to it that you get a smooth introduction to the game. You won't feel a thing, I promise.

Wednesday, May 9, 2007

Another session.

Squeezed in another 3 hours, and grabbed $1500 over 1700 hands. This brings me back in the green for the month. Nothing to get excited about, but it sure beats not being in the green.

This months batch of donkeys is also pretty weak, I haven't had a memorable donkey hand for over 7000 hands! I haven't forgotten the donkey of the month competition, I am simply short of entrants. I hope this is just a sign of some semi bad luck and not playing too much, rather than the field getting better.

I had a pretty annoying hand against a semi regular who I don't consider a very good player, at least he makes some... unorthodox plays, including this one.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (3 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($534)
BB ($791.50)
Button ($962)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Kd, 2d.
1 fold, Hero raises to $24, BB calls $18.

Flop: ($48) As, Jd, 7d (2 players)
Hero bets $32, BB calls $32.

Turn: ($112) Ah (2 players)
Hero bets $70, BB calls $70.

River: ($252) 9h (2 players)
Hero bets $135, BB calls $135.

Final Pot: $522

Hero has Kd 2d (one pair, aces).
BB has Th 7s (two pair, aces and sevens).
Outcome: BB wins $522.

I guess he just really liked his pair of sevens. As in my live game report I am not quite sure if the other guy played it like an idiot, or if he played me like a bitch. A disturbing trend.

Monday, May 7, 2007

So I played some.

In a surprising turn of events I played some poker this evening. Not really an enjoyable experience, as I dumped $1500 for 2400 hands. It was one of those nights were you really get to practise folding good hands in the face of aggressive opposition. Maybe the perfect poker player derives equal satisfaction from skillfully slowplaying the nuts to extract maximum value and from folding great hands to lose the minimum, but I certainly don't. Folding what could possibly be a winner is just an absolutely necessary part of being a winning poker player. That just doesn't seem to make it feel any better somehow.

I had QQ-AA exactly 40 times this evening, and booked a total of -$178 for those 40 hands. Pretty amazing stat, I think. What do you think of this laydown? Villain is completely unknown.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

CO ($144.42)
Hero ($600)
SB ($706.45)
BB ($733.40)
UTG ($501)
MP ($537.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Qc, Qs.
1 fold, MP calls $6, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, 2 folds, MP calls $22.

Flop: ($65) 8s, 9d, 5h (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $48, MP raises to $120, Hero calls $72.

Turn: ($305) 6c (2 players)
MP bets $165, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $470

I think it sucks, actually. I may be taking my 'try to fold an overpair once in a while' line a little too far here. At least I could have bet it properly.

As you may have noticed I am not playing much these days, increasing the level of annoyance of a negative session. My excuse for not playing much is decent, thesis work (all good) and socializing (not as good, but fine). My excuse for not winning is bad luck, of course. I could take a complete break from poker I suppose, but I genuinely like playing, and I can't work ALL the time. Infrequent sessions seem to work at the moment. I promise my loyal readers that when thesis and vacations are done, I will play poker and blog about it ALL the time.

Sunday, May 6, 2007

Live poker and hangovers.

Im currently nursing my second hangover in three days. Luckily this one is not as bad as the first one. That one set new standards for me in terms of pain, nausea and weariness. I thought I had a good well founded experience base for evaluating hangovers, but I must admit this one caught me off guard. Maybe it's old age catching up to me, or maybe I had just forgotten how bad it really is, since I don't drink as frequently as in my dormitory days, but I don't think I remember pain as intense and prolonged as this one. My body was basically reduced to an alcohol sweating wreck for a full day. Just thinking about it makes me shiver.

Anyway, the reason for my current fairly mild hangover was a day of socializing with the guys at the office where I spend a lot of my time. The office is a place for poker players to play and meet other poker players. It isn't a cheap work space, but I think it is worth it in order to get some sort of social aspect into your poker life which is normally a pretty lonely one. So yesterday it was party time. The running theme of the day was competition in different categories: Backgammon, rock-paper-scissors (aka Roshambo), dice and a poker tournament at a casino. I finished in the top three in all categories except backgammon which is clearly a stupid luck box game. The consensus seems to be that backgammon is 75% skill, 25% luck. What that means is not exactly clear, and in my opinion that makes it a pretty stupid thing to say, but it is certainly true that the dice sometimes lets weaker players beat better ones. Roshambo on the other hand has no random elements like dice, making it a 100% skill game. This logic is flawless, in case you were wondering. I lost the combined victory in a heart breaking heads up loss at dice.

Anyway, while I could go on on and on about the intricate strategies of Roshambo, I must remember this is in fact a poker blog, and report a bit from the poker action. It was a ~40 man ~$180 tournament at a local casino, and the nine of us put up a dominating performance, putting four guys among the final seven, and one of the guys won the whole thing. I took 5th place which gave a small pay out. This was fine considering I didn't get a single playable hand on the final table.

In the beginning of the game, I completely had my ass handed to me by what turned out to be one of the better players who also ended up taking 2nd. He raised in early position, and I 3-bet on the button with AQs. I could have called, but I wanted to take initiative in the hand since I hadn't really played a hand, and the other guy had a very passive image at the time. He calls. The flop comes ten high, and I continue bet the flop. He mumbles about having hit the ten, and worries out loud that I have the overpair I am representing. He puts me all in. I have about 1500 behind, and there is now 4500 in the pot, so I am getting 4 to 1 to call. This means if he has the ten and no other piece of the board, I am almost exactly getting the odds I need to call, meaning it actually doesn't matter from an EV perspective whether I call or fold. My concern here is that he is mumbling about his Ten to conceal an even better hand in which case I am drawing close to dead. Even a slight chance that he has a better hand than top pair, and I no longer have the odds to call, so I opt to fold. He flashes KQo. I am undecided if he played it like a maniac, or just coolly made me his bitch. You tell me.

The most striking difference of live poker from online poker is that for some reason people screw up their bet sizing when playing live. Bets of 1/4 pot, 1/3 pot and similar is something you very rarely see online, but it is almost a standard live game bet.

I have to cut this post short here, will come back and finish later.

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Up and down. And up.

May is off to a good start, but it didn't go smoothly. I had to suffer yet another 5 buy-in downswing from +$2k to -$1k before pulling home a $1200 night. Not bad at all considering I made a few mistakes. I have been talking about laying down overpairs more often, yet I couldn't convince myself to lay down this one, despite the fact that I practically KNEW I was behind:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($674.45)
Hero ($637)
Button ($1582.05)
SB ($1034.60)
BB ($1631.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Ad, As.
1 fold, Hero raises to $24, Button calls $24, SB calls $21, BB calls $18.

Flop: ($96) 2d, Th, Qs (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $80, Button folds, SB raises to $220, BB folds, Hero shoves ($533 All-In), SB calls $393.

Turn: ($1322) Js (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($1322) 9s (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $1322

SB has 2c 2s (three of a kind, twos).
Hero has Ad As (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins $1322.

This is simply not good enough. Villain is a solid regular, and he would never do this with a hand that couldn't beat an overpair. In my defence he does have an aggression factor of 6, and I couldn't see him just calling preflop with TT or QQ. Realistically, I can't see him doing this with anything other than 22 or QTs. Now, all I gotta do is trust myself enough to fold a great hand.

On the bright side, I pulled a totally sweet deep stacked river check raise bluff. As explained earlier, there ain't nothing sweeter in poker than a river check raise. Behold:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

MP ($659.50)
CO ($960)
Button ($1129.50)
SB ($197.78)
Hero ($1371.95)
UTG ($828.45)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8d, Qd.
2 folds, CO raises to $24, Button calls $24, 1 fold, Hero calls $18.

Flop: ($75) Th, Qh, 4d (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets $66, Hero calls $66, CO folds.

Turn: ($207) Ad (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($207) 3h (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $166, Hero raises to $600, Button folds.

Final Pot: $973

I know. No need to say much more other than 'total domination' or something similar. I might have lost quite a bit of money tonight, and still come away feeling fairly frisky considering this gem of a hand. Is there a possibility I am overrating the sweetness of a deep stacked river check raise bluff? No, there is not.

Tuesday, May 1, 2007

Aggravating April.


So, April turned out to be an imminently forgettable month poker wise. A somewhat different story from last month. Actually the contrast is close to stunning, and I suppose it must be hard to believe these last two months were played by the same player. Well, about a month ago I was worrying that people were getting the wrong idea of what you can expect from poker results. Let's just say I'm not worrying about that anymore.

Overall I think I played really well most of the time, however as always with room for improvement. I certainly don't think I played with less skill than last month, these are just the swings of real life poker. When all is said and done, I am just happy that despite a month of really horrible luck, I managed to show a profit, and I also think I came away a slightly better player. When you look at it from a real life stand point, hourly rate and total result is not bad at all. From a poker technical stand point, and considering the amount of money I am putting at stake, this month sucked royally, and that's an understatement.

Results (almost all 600NL):
Total: $2,870
Hands: 34,360 (eerily similar to last month)
Hours: 61.85
PTBB/100: 0.45
Multitabling ratio: 5.43
Hourly rate: $46