March Madness

As I finished February, which was a great month for me, I was really hoping it would not be a fluke. As it turns out, fabulous as February was, it absolutely had its ass handed to it by March. Now, I am certain that March WAS actually a fluke, and guess what, I don't give a damn. 2 losing sessions in the beginning of the month was followed by no less than SIXTEEN sessions in a row and counting with green numbers at the end of each day. This streak almost defies my understanding of what poker results should look like, so I will simply shut up and post the numbers.

400NL
Total: $8,390
Hands: 21,519
PTBB/100: 4.87

600NL
Total: $17,346
Hands: 12,534
PTBB/100: 11.53

1000NL
Total: $5,342
Hands: 172
PTBB/100: 155.30 (sustainable?)

Total
Total: $31,078
Hands: 34,225
Hours: 63.5
PTBB/100: 8.07
Multitabling ratio: 5.27
Hourly rate: $489!

How to win at poker.

Didn't play on Monday because I was out socializing. The socializing turned nasty, so I ended up with a monster hangover so I couldn't even blog or play poker Tuesday. So, I don't have any results to brag about today, or anything else on my mind, really, so I will just briefly tell you what to do if you've read the previous post, and have found out you have what it takes to win at poker.

First part is optional, and might not work for everybody: Find a poker book. It doesn't need to be a great book, as long as it is about the type of game you like (limit, no limit or tournaments) and not too advanced. Many books by 2+2 publishing will do, Harringtons are fine, most of Sklanskys and everything written by Ed Miller is outstanding. When you have read some of it, and find that it makes sense (end of optional part), go play. After a couple of hours, stop playing, go to 2+2's poker forums, find the forum that matches the game of your choice, read a few hand discussions, and post a hand of your own that you had doubts about. You may need to read the FAQ to do this properly. Make sure your bull shit filter is up, and enjoy being taken apart by vicious critisism. You have probably misplayed your hand to the point where you have embarrassed yourself. Suck it up. The way to avoid future embarrasment is to play better, NOT to stop posting hands. You have to be hard on yourself here.

This whole process shouldn't take more than 2-4 hours plus whatever time you spend on the book, and I guarantee that you will have become a significantly better player during this brief time (if you haven't completed some or all of the steps in advance, in which case you could have learned only a little bit). Now do it again, play poker, post a hand when you have doubts, read a few other hand discussions each time, and you have started down the path.

Remember: Results do not matter! I can't stress this enough. Make sure that you will be able to continue playing through the most horrible luck imaginable. Move down when necessarry. Don't cash out, ever! Make good decisions. If you don't know what the correct decision is, ask, and think. That's it. Play. Study. Profit.

What does it take to be a winning poker player?

I love being in the great outdoors for hiking, fishing, canoeing and just getting some fresh air. The crowning moment of these activities was almost 5 years ago, as I spent a month paddling the 700km down the Anderson River in the North West Territories of Canada with 3 friends. Having been bitten by the wildlife bug, I find it fascinating to consider what it takes to survive under extreme circumstances, such as being caught by bad weather or getting lost out in the wild.

It turns out, the most important factor is not your physique. Big or small, thin or fat, the most important thing is all in your head. Of course, if you are too weak to wade through the snow, or too fat to walk half a mile, you are probably in for it, but assuming a functional healthy body, what really matters is that you maintain the will to move forward, stay warm, find shelter, water or whatever else you need most urgently. If you get desperate and turn inward on your own misery, you cease to help yourself survive. If the Discovery Channel is to be believed, research have shown that the most spectacular against-all-odds survivors are almost always people who have some greater cause in mind. Whether it be family, religion or something else is irrelevant, as long as it prevents you from self destruction.

For those of you who don't play poker, it may seem ridiculous to compare a few bad poker results with wildlife survival. But let me assure you, that when you go to bed thousands of dollars poorer than you woke up several days or more in a row, or spend two months studying and playing poker without making a dime, the sheer hopelessness and desperation is very much comparable to getting your life sucked out of you by a winter storm. Soul destroying is the term I am looking for here. When you work hard to study the game, concentrate for hours to play perfect poker and watch all this effort go up in smoke as some IDIOT is rewarded by a miracle river costing you two days of profit, I assure you many a grown man has cried tears of desperation. Needless to say, with a full bank roll and unlimited gambling options at your disposal, self destructive tendencies in these situations can end your poker career in just a few minutes.

To be a winning poker player, you obviously need some raw intelligence to learn the game, and pick up the fundamental math necessary. To be a truly great poker player, you need to excel in a wide range of skills, but that is not the issue here, I am considering what it takes to merely win at a level where you can make a decent living from the game. My contention is that a lot of people (probably more than half) have the intelligence needed to win enough money at low to mid stakes poker to make a living.

But the problem is, that as you start out playing poker before you start making good money, chances are you will run into circumstances and situations that appear hopeless and seem to confirm that you just can't win money at this game. Since very few hobby poker players play for the Glory of God or the survival of their family, they need something else to keep them going when the going gets tough. In my opinion you need some combination of 'Love of the Game', a compulsive gambling nature or an unquenchable self confidence to succeed in the long run. Otherwise the massive downswings or break even stretches will inevitably get you down. And since we are not talking survival here, but merely the continued persuasion of a hobby, it is so easy to put it away and spend your time on something more productive and fun. Probably a good decision too, btw.

Too hot.

I am now running so hot, that the universe is beginning to unravel at the edges, threatening to put an end to all time and existence. Also, it has gotten so bad that I find it downright offensive to continue to post session results. This weekend I extended the green session streak to 13, and broke my non-crazy-saturday record for best session. I will still summarize results each month, so you will have to wait for that for precise results.

Still going strong, and a look back at SnG's.

Yesterday I took advantage of prime time gambling hours Friday night and 6-tabled the 600NL for a few hours. Once again I ended up ahead, this time $2200 for 1500 hands. If I am not mistaken, this is now 11 sessions in a row with green numbers. I am slightly troubled that this blog makes life as a poker player look a little too easy and attractive. For a full illustration of poker life, the blog should contain it's fair share of bad downswings and prolonged break even stretches. Have no fear, when the dark side shows up, I will report to you immediately. In the meantime, remember that you are reading the blog of a fairly skilled, experienced but also very lucky player.

A little over a week ago, as I was just plugging along, I needed to clear a stack of deposit bonuses at Pokerstars. I have good reason to avoid Pokerstars normally since being a non-EU based gambling company, I have to pay taxes off winnings there, and also the place is apparently crawling with American pros winning money from each other. But playing off a deposit bonus roughly translates into playing without rake, which is a very favourable situation, so until the bonuses were cleared, Pokerstars it was.

SnG's (one table tournaments) are perfect for piling up Frequent Player Points, and since I am basically a SnG God (who just never wins because of bad luck), that's what I tried. It brought back the memories quickly: Nothing like getting sucked out on by a horrible call on the bubble and taking 4th place.

The tournament structure has the unique implication that a player can be hugely affected by what happens when he is NOT in the hand. The faster other players bust, the better for me. This means, in turn, that other players have the power to not only hurt themselves by playing bad, but to hurt ME by playing bad. The classic example is by calling our push with a bad hand on the bubble (when 4 players remain, top 3 get money). In a cash game, you would normally be thrilled to get an AK push called by JT, but on the bubble in a tournament, this can have terrible implications, since you are basically more than happy to just pick up the blinds and survive another round. When we are close to or on the bubble, we don't want to gamble unless we have by far the best of it. It brings an interesting dynamic to the game, but now playing cash games, I much appreciate that I can't get hurt by other players being crazy gamblers.

The other trademark of SnG's that you may like or dislike is that the majority of the game is played with small stacks compared to blinds. And with less than 10 Big Blinds in your stack, the whole game is basically reduced to one decision: Push or fold preflop. This decision is often NOT easy, mind you, in fact playing perfect push or fold poker is what separates the good from the great SnG players, but still, because of this aspect, the SnG game can never be as varied and difficult as cash games IMO. For that reason, even the greatest SnG players don't make as much money as the merely very good cash games players. As for the greatest cash game players, the amount of money they make is just ridiculous.

Still, I can very much recommend SnG's for new players. It has fun action, and it is definitely possible to make good money here. Multitabling buy-in levels of $20-$100 is a great way to improve your NL Hold'em game, get used to (and become an expert at) tournament dynamics and make a tidy profit at the same time. But the mistake I made was that once I hit the $109 tournaments, I stayed there too long. The $109 and $215 tournaments represents the 'roof' of that world, and you have to be really really good to enjoy solid win rates at the $215's. I know it is possible to find more expensive buy-ins, but in my opinion your time is much better spent switching to cash games, and learning to play 'real' poker. If you have poker talent, it will simply be rewarded better playing cash games.

For me, the switch cost me about 2 months of not really winning anything at cash games, since I simply was not very good at it, and maybe also ran a little bad, who knows. But as this blog documents, the riding has been pretty smooth since then, and in addition to making more money, it is simply much more fun to play cash than it was to play SnG's once I had them 'figured out'. Playing the game that is more fun can never be totally wrong.

Looks like I'm in for it.

Go tell that long tongue liar
Go and tell that midnight rider
Tell the rambler, the gambler, the back biter
Tell 'em that God's gonna cut 'em down
Tell 'em that God's gonna cut 'em down

You can run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Sooner or later God'll cut you down
Sooner or later God'll cut you down

Lyrics of old American folk song 'Run on', popularized by Moby on 'Play' (1999) and Johnny Cash posthumously on 'American V: A Hundred Highways' (2006).

I certainly hope the authors of that song didn't have it on good authority, but rather based their opinion on hearsay and rumour. The idea of a vengeful God hunting me down along with the liars and the back biters(?) doesn't appeal much to me I must admit. I will have to hope that God is more forgiving than his followers give him credit for.

Even so, I think it is a fair assumption that it is not the God almighty I should look to for getting AA in the pocket, or rivering the flush. He is probably busy elsewhere with all the wars he has going (Homer Simpson: "He can't be everywhere."). Instead, being Scandinavian, I shall look to the old Norse religion, those gods are a bit more realistic in their stance on cheating, lying and fornicating (poker clearly belongs in this category), basically they are fine with it. Loke the prankster will be my go-to-guy here. Not afraid of the odd shape or sex change to pull a good joke, often resulting in violence, misery and the odd monstrous offspring, he is just the kind of fellow who will enjoy dishing out random 2-outers and suckouts on undeserving humans.

Clearly, there is a loyalty problem here. Loke is not exactly famous for sticking by his friends when the shit hits the fan, so I will be careful not to invest too much time endearing myself to him. Also, he is currently tied up by the entrails of his brother while a poisonous snake drivels venom on his head. This is due to some issues with Odin and some other tough dudes of Asgard he used to be friendly with. So, even as I count on him to bring me the goods, I will try to keep myself prepared for the day he turns his back on me and downswings me.

Maybe I'll just see how it works out without committing myself religiously. Also, Partypoker is very careful to stress the fact that the cards are dealt fairly, and their Random Number Generator should be top notch, so I don't know if God or Loke could really help me here, even if they wanted to.

Anyway, Loke has been gunning for me this month, and continues to do so. Results at 600NL is +$1800 two days ago, and +$600 yesterday, only 2000 hands total, as I've tried to keep it down to 4 tables at 600NL so far. Keep smilin' bro!

We want the bald, and we're gonna score!

Moving day today, as I got my new domain playbald.com working. You are looking at it!

The name is inspired by my minimalistic hair style which is not entirely voluntary, and fits like a glove with my first Partypoker screen name, Baldnbroke.

It will be fun to see how many of you will find your way to my blog. Please tell your friends if you think it is a worthwhile read, tell me if you don't.

First 600NL session.

I suppose it is only fitting that in my first full session above 400NL, I also take my worst single hand loss ever. If I may say so, it was quite a brutal setup.

Anyway, I am very happy with the session, I broke even in 1500 hands, and in general people played pretty bad. As bad or worse actually, than at 400NL. I guess I have found a new home if the tables stay this good.

Anyway, on to the brutal beat. I was cruising along at +$1500 considering to call it a day, when this happened:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Hero ($1447.55)
SB ($2869.34)
BB ($1222.81)
UTG ($647.60)
MP ($605.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Ts, Th. SB posts a blind of $3.
UTG raises to $21, 1 fold, Hero calls $21, SB (poster) calls $18, 1 fold.

Flop: ($69) Jh, 2c, Js (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $50, SB calls $50, UTG folds.

Turn: ($169) 7h (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($169) Tc (2 players)
SB bets $180, Hero raises to $500, SB calls $2866.34 (All-In), Hero calls $1447.55 (All-In).

SB has Td Jc (full house, jacks full of tens).
Hero has Ts Th (full house, tens full of jacks).
Outcome: SB wins $5162.89.

Ouch. What a fucked up river. $1450 down the drain. I am hoping to see a showdown of 22, 77 or maybe even worse, since he is not a solid player. Basically there are two Jacks and one Ten left in the deck, and he needs two of those 3 cards to beat me. Would he only push the nuts here? Maybe, but he is a semi donk, and if he pushes a smaller boat also I easily have odds to call since there are 6 ways he can have a smaller boat and only 3 ways for a better one or quads, and I am getting over 3:1 for my final call. Hmmm, he probably would only push the nuts, dammit. I now think I screwed it up.

Oh well, I suppose if I had to take a beat like that, I couldn't ask for a better time, when I am well ahead for the session, and only two days removed from a monster Saturday. And look at the bright side: I am playing with a chip on my shoulder again!

Where to now?

After my Saturday, I am surprised that I can't seem to find motivation to fire up the usual 6 tables of 400NL, nor did I feel any urge to play the Big Sunday tournaments. Always a questionable play, the Big Sunday seemed less appealing than usual yesterday, as I probably would have needed to crack the top 8 or something to make more money than I did Saturday. The fact is that the $215 Sunday tournaments that one and a half years ago was just a high roller dream for me, now simply does not have enough money to get me excited until less than 5% of the players remain and I am still in it. Make no mistake, a top 3 finish would be huge for me of course, but even for a world class tournament player (I am not even close) that is a wildly improbable result. When a top 20 finish from a 1500 player field can no longer turn me on, the days of dedicating prime time hours solely for these tournaments are over.

But back to the 400NL tables. After giving it some thought, I realized that I accomplished a subconscious goal on Saturday: To win enough money in March, to prove February was no fluke. Of course, such a thing is impossible, there is no 'proof' of anything in the volatile world of poker results, but certainly, three months in a row of solid results mean something, and Saturday to me turned out to be confirmation of sorts that I was the real deal. So now that a goal was reached, I guess it is no wonder I can't be bothered to just open up the usual tables for a measly expected $200/hr? Completely ridiculous I know, but true nonetheless. The fact is, winning big money regularly is still relatively new to me, so I have simply not given much thought to what my new goals would be after that was established (which it really isn't actually, but bear with me).

Of course, there are plenty of more or less low hanging fruit to reach for. Becoming a winning regular at 600NL, 1000NL, 2000NL, 5000NL, win an EPT event, win a WSOP bracelet, beat the Big Game, whatever. Setting a goal to win one of the big tournaments seems silly to me. There are so few of those, you could work your whole life towards it, and simply be denied by the cards that are dealt. Setting yourself the goal of being able to just play in them regularly is much more reasonable in my opinion, then results will come, or they won't. But that is not really a goal I truly want to pursue, I am not even sure I would like travelling for the big tournaments regularly. For now, aiming for regularly pwning the 1000NL game seems like a good long term goal for me. If I accomplished that, I would certainly be able to play as many of the big tournaments as I would like. And if it happens I think it is only fair that I take a few days off to think up a new goal.

Having already cashed out enough for groceries and dental bills for this month (thank you Saturday), I will forget the 400NL tables for tonight and take a shot playing just 600NL. We will see if the poker gods are still smiling. Stay tuned.

Coming up soon I am sure: Reports from the games of 50NL, from a bitter future me forever regretting all the delusional and dreamy posts of a high rolling future. Well, at least I will have dared to dream.

I love poker!!!

So, today we got another Danish European Poker Tour winner. Congratulations Peter!

I decided to celebrate by having an ABSOLUTELY INSANE night at the tables. It started out pretty standard breaking even the first hour at 400NL, and then taking off to winning $2200. A totally sweet result extending my current hot streak. I was about to quit early as I could feel myself growing a little too complacent and satisfied, when I decided, wtf I will take a shot at 1000NL with my winnings (This is $5/$10 blinds).

It was not a completely reckless decision. I had considered it several times, as a well known donk had become a regular 4-tabling the 1000NL, and I have been wanting to take a shot at him for a while now. Also, if you are going to be taking shots, do it on a Friday or Saturday night when everybody is stoned, drunk and action hungry.

So I put myself on the waiting list for this guy, and as I observe 4 different tables, a spot suddenly opens at a table where I recognize 4 players, neither of whom have been impressive at 400NL. 4 out of 6 ain't bad I think, and promptly sit down. Shortly after, a spot opens at another table, right in the sweet spot to the left of my donk. Proceed, 2-table action:

Now I am fairly pumped, both because the money runs in and out a lot faster here, but also because I feel I have something to prove here. I didn't get a chance to prove anything tonight, because the cards were hitting me in the face so hard I almost got a nose bleed. I was hitting sets, boats, flushes, AA, TPTK at just the times I needed them. I was stacking regulars and wannabes in droves. Biggest hand came when I stacked a regular for 120BB's ($1200) with a boat against his trips. He probably would have gotten away from it if I hadn't been so aggressive on every hand up until then (because I had the goods every damn time). Now we are both 250 BB's deep, so it is getting exciting. Two hands later, I get AA, raise preflop, he 3-bets, I 4-bet, HE 5-BETS, so he now has 80BB's invested in the pot!!! I push of course, he thinks for a while, then mucks. These guys never knew what hit'em. It was beautiful.

Basically, the only one I didn't destroy at the tables was the very donk I was chasing. He stacked me with set over set, impossible to get away from, so I supported his continued stay at 1000NL, which is fine by me.

I played 172 hands for a total of $5.342, so including the 400NL small change, fuck, I won three quarters of a WSOP seat tonight! Like I said, insane.

Another day, another marriage.

Here is an interesting hand I played yesterday with several debatable decisions, and also a good example of what I was rambling about in my previous post.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Button ($466.30)
Hero ($552)
BB ($197.10)
UTG ($351.40)
MP ($353.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Th, Qh. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, 2 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $22, 1 fold, UTG calls $20.

Flop: ($52) 8d, Jh, 5d (2 players)
Hero bets $40, UTG raises to $80, Hero calls $40.

Turn: ($212) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks.

River: ($212) 9c (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $100, Hero pushes All-In, UTG calls $351.40 (All-In).

UTG has Ac Ad (two pair, aces and jacks).
Hero has Th Qh (straight, queen high).
Outcome: Hero wins $702.40

We can't be (too) results oriented, so feel free to comment on any mistakes you think I made.

Just a smallish 1000 hand session for the evening, but it still netted me $700, so I'm happy.

Donkey strategy, part II: Loving, courting and ultimately marrying your hand.

They look so pretty. Even beautiful at times. But I must warn you, even the best of them can turn their back on you, and when they do, they will strip you to the bare bones.

From the front lines, I bring you yet another example of a 'strategy' to be avoided. I had an insanely profitable session yesterday, and one of the reasons this session turned out to be such a lucrative endeavor was that a donkey at one of my tables had a real weakness for women. Queens, in particular:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $6 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

BB ($1079)
UTG ($424.65)
MP ($1147.80)
CO ($1168.50)
Button ($678)
Hero ($1352.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ad, Ks. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls $6 "Hi, there", 3 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $28, 1 fold, UTG calls $22 "what are you doing Saturday?".

Flop: ($62) Ah, 7h, 4c (2 players)
Hero bets $45, UTG calls $45 "I love you".

Turn: ($152) 6h (2 players)
Hero bets $100, UTG calls $424.65 (All-In) "I do!", Hero calls $251.65.

River: ($928.30) 3d (2 players, 1 all-in)

Hero has Ad Ks (one pair, aces).
UTG has Qd Qc (one pair, queens: "I am leaving you for my tennis coach").
Outcome: Hero wins $928.30.

Now, I am not telling you to fold anything that can't beat TPTK (Top Pair Top Kicker), but in this case, the turn is definitely a very attractive place for villain to turn his back on those lovely ladies. And raise preflop ferchrisake! Despite all their obvious graces, QQ is not a hand to slow play unimproved. One thing is certain: He really loved his hand.

As an aside, one might consider that representing the flush on the turn is not an absolutely atrocious play by villain. And against a solid opponent with a full stack, turn is a tough spot for me to call. But in this day and age, if you regularly donk it up at the tables, it will leave a mark on your statistics, which will find their way into the data bases of the regulars. In this case, his short stack and donkish stats made my turn call an easy one.

Results for the day: 3300 hands for a whopping $3800! My second best day of cash games ever. Best one was $4000 back in January.

Donkey strategy, the zero value bet.

In an attempt to prevent my esteemed blog readers from degenerating into utter fishiness, I will attempt to educate them on the finer arts of donkey strategy, so as you shall not replicate it at whatever tables you prefer to play.

The focus of today's blog entry is the much feared zero value bet. On the river, after all cards are out, there will most often only be two reasons to bet: To get a worse hand to call, or to get a better hand to fold. If we bet with a hand that will only get calls from a better hand, and only folds from a worse hand, we call this a zero value bet, because it has... zero value. I present you with a hand I played not 15 minutes ago:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Hero ($847.20)
BB ($471.90)
UTG ($582.90)
MP ($276.60)
Button ($504.44)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Kh, Ks. Hero posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, Hero (poster) raises to $14, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($32) 5d, Kd, Js (2 players)
Hero bets $25, BB calls $25.

Turn: ($82) 8s (2 players)
Hero bets $70, BB calls $70.

River: ($222) 7d (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $104, Hero calls $104.

Hero has Kh Ks (three of a kind, kings).
BB has Jh Th (one pair, jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins $430.

Notice how villains less-than-half-pot river bet will almost never get a fold from a pair of kings here, and will certainly also never get a call from a worse hand. Ladies and gentlemen, do NOT try this at home, this man is a trained donkey, who LOVES to throw hundreds of dollars out the window.

If I may digress, I recently ran into an article by a high stakes player explaining the concept of merging your range. A consequence of any decent player avoiding the zero value bet, is that on the river, you will usually only bet your best hands (to get a call from a worse hand), and your worst hands (to fold out a better one). This leaves a range in the middle that will most often be check/called or check/folded. Now, as high stakes players are aware of their opponents also being aware of this concept, they have invented a counter strategy called merging your range. For example, if two good players have come to a board of TQ6K5 for example, a player may merge his bet range to include pairs of queens no kicker, because he is aware that his opponent is aware that HIS opponent will not make a zero value bet, and thus may now call with a pair of tens or even worse hands, because avoidance of the zero value bet will increase the chance that any bet is a bluff. Hope you stayed with me through that :).

This is a good example of what poker is all about (and it's not just about shoving 75s heads up on the final table of a WPT Event, contrary to popular opinion). That is, staying one thinking level ahead of your opposition. If I started really thinking about concepts like merging my range at the miserably low limits I play at, I would be wasting my time and, which is infinitely worse, my money. But if I (or you) were to sit down at a $10/$20 table, it would serve us well to know which players are capable of advanced plays like the above.

Conclusion: There is a probability larger than zero that BB in my hand example, is actually a seasoned high stakes professional severely overestimating his opponents :).

Btw, session went well for me, up $1200 for 1900 hands.

Going to the WSOP?

If I can maintain the favourable results of the last couple of months, I am definitely going to try to take a trip to Vegas this summer, and play one or a couple of WSOP events. This brings up an interesting question: Should I play the Main Event with the hefty $10.000 prize tag, or just play a few smaller events in the $1.500-$5.000 range?

Pros of playing the Main Event:

1. It is the main event. It should be pretty cool to be a part of the biggest poker tournament, ever!
2. There will be lots of bad players. With the publicity and hype surrounding the 'big one', it is sure to have a very nice Expected Value. Probably a lot better than the smaller events at least.
   

Cons of playing the Main Event:

1. I can't afford it. This could work itself out if I continue to win at the current pace, or if I win a satellite, but even then, the money and time spent playing satellites could probably be better spent elsewhere.
2. Variance is absolutely huge. In short, you are likely to either win nothing or a truly obscene amount of money. Not really a good thing if you are a professional poker player. Besides, I would definitely not be 10 times happier winning 1 million than I would be winning 100.000. It is a matter of expected utility. First prize should be well over 10 million dollars, and in excess of 2 million dollars, my utility function is really really flat.
3. Emotionally, I am not sure how I would react to busting early in a $10.000 tournament. It might ruin the whole experience.

I think what this works out to, is that unless I locate a good backing/prize sharing deal or I really tear it up at the tables these coming months, my money is probably best placed in the smaller events.
Anyway, if you have $10.000 you want to put to good work, let me know.

And we have liftoff!

March finally took off for me. $2300 up for today (2600 hands) brought me comfortably into the green for this month. You have to love Friday night at party poker, fish are abundant! I have to tell you about a golden comment from one of them: I raise preflop with QQ, and he calls in position with Q9o. Flop comes king high, I bet, he calls. I check blank turn, he bets, I call. River is the last Q, I bet out $120 into a $180 pot. He thinks for a while and then calls again with his crap hand. He says: "Nice 1-outer, or pot would have been mine". You couldn't make this stuff up :).

A competition!

After my last results post, I imagine hordes of donks flocking to the tables thinking "That's the worst donk off he's ever seen? I can beat that!" This evening we have a new front runner for my new competition: The Worst Donkey of the Month. And this one has an added bonus: Quad aces!!!

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Button ($957.80)
SB ($402)
Hero ($494.50)
UTG ($368.50)
MP ($374.30)
CO ($519.23)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As, Ac. SB posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls $4, 1 fold, CO raises to $8, 1 fold, SB (poster) calls $6, Hero raises to $36, UTG folds, CO calls $32, SB calls $32.

Flop: ($124) 4h, Ad, Ah (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, CO bets $40, SB folds, Hero calls $40.

Turn: ($204) 4s (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $60, Hero raises to $200, CO calls $140.

River: ($604) 7c (2 players)
Hero calls $490.50 (All-In), CO calls $214.50.

Final Pot: $1309

Hero has As Ac (four of a kind, aces).
CO has 5s 5h (two pair, aces and fives).

Outcome: Hero wins $1033.

My result for this evening (1700 hands) was $1040, so if he had made a runner runner royal flush, I would still have broken even. I guess I am just that good. Still in the red for March though, so chip is not off my shoulder.

My setup.

This is what my desktop looks like as I am destroying the 400NL at Partypoker (for example, as you can see I am only down a couple of buy-ins at the time of this screen shot). It will be spread out on my two 20" flat screen monitors, which I bought back in the days when I was 9-tabling SnG's. Since then I have gotten used to all the extra space, and couldn't live without it now, even for non multitabling tasks.

In the top right corner, Poker Tracker is continually importing hands, and Poker Ace HUD is displaying statistics for myself and villains on the actual poker tables. Those will be all the crazy looking numbers you see wrapped around player names. I use a neat little program called Multi Table Helper to perform all actions with the keyboard.

Still grinding.

Up $450 for tonight, 2300 hands.

A wild ride.

I got my zen skills thoroughly tested tonight, as I sat down to prove I was no donkey. After two hours of complete misery, I was officially downswinging like there was no tomorrow. The red number in Poker Tracker showed -$2200, and I was sitting there trying to figure out how to explain to my loyal crowd of blog readers this horrible fall from grace.

Then, suddenly, for reasons I can't fathom, everyone decided to start giving me their money. I raked in huge pots by the loads, and suddenly I was sitting at every table with 2-5 buy-ins. I ended the evening solidly in the green, for $450.

For your viewing pleasure, I give you one of the worst donk offs I have seen of a nice $500 stack.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($514.63)
Hero ($837.40)
MP ($517.30)
Button ($280)
SB ($396)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9h, 9s. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero raises to $16, 1 fold, Button calls $16, 1 fold, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($50) Ad, 9c, Th (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $40, Button calls $40, BB calls $40.

Turn: ($170) 5c (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $130, Button calls $280 (All-In), BB calls $224, Hero calls $94.

River: ($898) 8s (3 players, 1 all-in)
BB calls $510.63 (All-In), Hero calls $234.63.

Final Pot: $1643.26

Results:
BB has As 6s (one pair, aces).
Hero has 9h 9s (three of a kind, nines).
Button has Ah Qc (one pair, aces).
Outcome: Hero wins $1643.26.

BB left after that hand, probably looking for the bastard that stole his fold button.

Motivation.

I slept on it, and I am now my usually well composed self again. Practically a zen master, I am. One good thing about a decent downswing (I am aware that two bad sessions does not constitute a downswing), is that it helps you get rid of that mellow self satisfied feeling of being able to sit down and generate a few thousand at any given moment. Nothing like a little uncertainty to keep your edge.

What does it take to be the kind of player that is really able to put in lots of hours, and profit from this lucrative hobby/job of ours? It seems that for me, when I have a long period of good results, I grow a bit too satisfied with that, and start to lose motivation. Now, after two bad days, I can't wait to get back to the tables and prove my bad results wrong. It seems I am playing with a chip on my shoulder. I am practically the Rodney Harrison of poker!

(please post a comment if you are aware of what that last sentence is referring to, for scientific purposes)

Party poker is rigged LOL!!!1one

...and they don't even have the common decency to be subtle about it. Bastards! -$1600 for the day despite being clearly the best player to ever grace their lame poker room. I am on pace for a -$20,000 month. Holy crap!

In other news, the danish stock market went belly up today, so all my beautiful stock took a nasty beating. The stupid stock market is rigged too! What a crappy day. Ate Thai Food, good.

A poker session!

As riots continue, I decided to show my lack of sympathy by playing some poker, and got in 3 hours. Lost $600, so I think I will go out and burn myself a couple of cars, since that is the way we do things in Copenhagen.

Made some bad and semi bad calls in unfortunate situations. Annoying. Maybe I need to concentrate more, or maybe I just need to get better cards. Still, while I am sure I could play better, almost half my opponents play downright bad judging from their stats alone, so the sky is not falling just yet.

Riots in Copenhagen.

CNN Linky (link dead, background info here)

For 3 days now, rioters have been burning cars and throwing cobble stones at police, and we are going on 500 arrests as I write. I happened to pass close by the center of attention, 'Ungdomshuset', a couple of hours after it was cleared by the police. There was a weird mood, a lot of people were about but no cars, so strangely it was a lot quieter than usual. As I walked by, about 20 protesters ran from a couple of police officers. A comical scene really, as the 'protesters' were maybe 12-15 years old, and clearly thought it was pretty cool to be a part of something that might make the evening news.

That experience fits my general impression of the situation. Demonstrations are dominated by very young people who think its cool to have something to be against, and thrown in are a few older political idealists and some troublemakers who really turn things ugly. While I am sure things could have been handled a lot better by the politicians during the last 10 years, my impression is that most of Denmark has lost patience with the protesters. While shutting down the popular 'Ungdomshus' was probably a bad idea, the users have been offered a new house by the city of Copenhagen, which they turned down. The users disrespects the society they live in, but they still would like a free house, thank you, and it has to be THAT one, or they set about destroying the city.

Anyway, huge props to the danish police for clearing a barricaded house, making 500 arrests, handling 3 (so far) days of riots without anyone getting seriously hurt. All this under intense media scrutiny, and no serious foul moves by the police have been spotted yet (as far as I know). I am reminded of this old sticker by Maddox:

Slow start to March.

Played two hours and was basically bored the final hour and a half. I don't remember a single noteworthy hand. -$200. Quit early since my back was killing me. This is probably a good time to take a break for a few days, enjoy my February winnings, and not play until the hunger comes back, and my back feels better. I'm guessing about 3 days. Also I have my eyes on a couple of WSOP satellites Friday and Sunday that can be played nicely lying down with the laptop.

Sorry for the boring update :).

Fabulous February.

My first really good month of cash games, hopefully first of many. Solid results all the way through. A long break even streak is not long in the past, and I have not forgotten, so that makes the feeling even sweeter.

Total: $15,672
Hands: 38,205
Hours: 83
PTBB/100: 4.79
Multitabling ratio: 4.53
Hourly rate: $189