This is a graph of my last session at 2000NL. Those of you who know what it means are probably reaching for the puke bucket or just throwing up in your mouths. While you guys sort that out, I will explain for the rest.
The red line is my equity in all-in situations during the session. The blue line represents the actual results of the hands. So, if I am all in with aces against kings preflop with full stacks, my equity is about 82% of the pot, and the red line will increase by my expected winnings: $4000 * 82% - $2000 = $1280. If I win his stack, I will have registered a positive difference between the red and the blue line of $2000 - $1280 = $720. If I lose, the difference will be -$3280.
While there are many other ways to be lucky or unlucky in poker, the difference between the two lines is the purest form of luck measurable. You will never see a systematic deviance between the two, only chaotic variance. So, if you haven't reached the conclusion yourself, let me spell it out: Friday, the cards screwed me over to the tune of $11.000. It was just an unbelievable series of lost coin flips, missed draws and nasty suckouts never going my way. Total result of the session was -$13.500, since I also got a bit unlucky in other ways than this.
This means that my short stint as a weekend high roller at the 2000NL games is over for now. It will take a bit of grinding at mid stakes to get back to where I was, so thats the plan for now.
2 comments:
Wow, and I was just bitchin' about how I lost $20 in a nasty suckout last night. Guess it's time to evaluate what to blog about :-D
/j.
Everyone starts small :). See you soon at 2000NL.
Kristian
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